2021 NFL Draft: Pro-to-Pro Comparisons for the Top Prospects
With Super Bowl LV here, the NFL world's attention has largely shifted to the offseason. Franchises are working feverishly to fill coaching positions, front office positions, and plan to address key needs on their roster. We've already seen a big trade on the transaction wire, and more are expected as free agency approaches.
For months, the prospects at the top of mock drafts have been household names, and they will be picked apart to death before the end of April. However, these players can play the game and possess unique characteristics that allowed them to dominate at the collegiate level. The difficulty in evaluating them is determining whether those characteristics are strong enough to put them ahead of their competition in the NFL.
Comparisons are difficult because usage is influenced by a variety of external factors. We'll look at movement ability and the eye test to see how 10 of the best playmaking prospects stack up against today's NFL stars. Some of the comparisons aren't as lofty as some of the Hall of Fame names, but there's no shame in drawing parallels to a Pro Bowl-caliber player.
Zach Wilson, BYU
image via USA Today Sports/Randy Sartin
Comparison: Kyler Murray
Wilson is the most difficult comparison at the position in this class. The recent influx of undersized, athletic passers with accurate and strong arms has altered the perception of the position. Guys like Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield, and Murray represent a range of styles within the archetype and provide a small sample of what newcomers can expect.
Wilson has the potential to be the best of the bunch. Manziel had his off-field demons, but he also had some on-field limitations like Mayfield and Murray. None of the three quarterbacks enjoy sitting in the pocket and watching receivers progress through their routes, and their impatience causes problems that hinder the offense regardless of their talent level.
Wilson is in the same boat. He has a powerful arm like Murray and is as accurate on the move as anyone who isn't Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson. One of the highlights of the 2020 college football season was seeing him extend plays.
Wilson is in the same situation. He has Murray's powerful arm and is as accurate on the move as anyone other than Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, or Russell Wilson. Seeing him extend plays was one of the highlights of the 2020 college football season.
Image via USA Today Sports/Ken Rulnard
Comparison: Deshaun Watson
Lawrence had an illustrious and esteemed collegiate career, making him the clear-cut best prospect in the 2021 class and a foregone conclusion as the top pick. The fact that Urban Meyer came out of retirement to take over the Jaguars and rebuild the franchise with Lawrence says everything about what one of the best recruiters of all time thinks of his talent.Lawrence had an illustrious and esteemed collegiate career, establishing him as the undisputed best prospect in the 2021 class and a foregone conclusion as the top pick.
The fact that Urban Meyer came out of retirement to take over the Jaguars and rebuild the franchise with Lawrence says a lot about how one of the best recruiters of all time views his talent.He'll throw a forced pass for a turnover now and then, but the big plays far outweigh the drawbacks.
Because of their similar profiles, the Tigers' offense didn't have to change much from when Watson was at the helm to when Lawrence took over. Both were extremely intelligent and consistent passers, and their rollouts movement within the pocket allowed them to escape the scheme. Another good comparison would be Andrew Luck, but Lawrence has avoided intercept-able throws better than Luck.
image via USA Today Sports/Tim Heitman
Comparison: Colin Kaepernick
Lance is unlikely to have a direct comparison. Lance, like Wilson, is part of a very small group.There haven't been many examples of a playmaker who can run as well as he does and has the arm talent to make any play.
The raw talent is worth investing in as a development project for the right employees. Lance's elongated motion and sloppy footwork prevent him from consistently throwing beyond 10 yards, but the plays he does make are stunning. With chunk plays and quarterback scrambles, he can devastate defenses in a zone-heavy, play-action-based attack.
His raw stats overstate his contribution at North Dakota State, and adjusting to NFL reads will be more difficult than usual due to the talent gap. Lance could oscillate between exciting and frustrating if his mechanics do not improve significantly and he does not become a stellar processor in the pocket.
Comparison: Dak Prescott
After a solid but inconsistent junior season, it appears that some have lost faith in Fields. It would be a mistake to overlook Fields' playmaking abilities because of the context of the offense around him and his struggles. In the NFL, an effective quarterback can quickly transform an offense.
Fields is accurate at all levels due to a strong arm, excellent touch, and understanding of the defender's leverage. He rarely puts the ball in danger and has demonstrated that he can self-correct as well as anyone. His deep passes improved over the first three games of his Buckeyes career in 2019, and his footwork became more consistent.
Fields' removal from an offense that featured deep receiver-option routes and inexperienced freshmen will alleviate concerns about how long he will hold the ball. While he can improve his processing, Ohio State's offense was not designed for him to make all pre-determined reads. He'll benefit from it in the long run.
He's an excellent pocket passer who can also be dangerous outside of the tackle box. His combination of efficiency and physical prowess to connect on chunk plays is similar to Prescott's. The Dallas quarterback was not nearly as polished as Fields is, so teams can expect the Buckeye to emerge as a top young quarterback early in his career.
Comparison: Byron Jones
The lone defender on our list is the cornerback who is most likely to be called first. Surtain, an Alabama blue-blood prospect, is a lot like his father on the football field. A playmaker with long reach, quick closing ability, and excellent awareness who can shut down an opposing offense's top receiver.
Surtain, like any tall cornerback, can be beaten on quick-hitting routes and scrambles because he isn't as quick as some shorter defenders. He compensates well, however, and keeps his head swiveling at all times. In man or zone, he is rarely seen out of position.
Surtain would benefit from playing in a man-heavy or Cover 3-heavy scheme as a rookie and beyond. His pure cover skills are outstanding, and the physicality he displays with receivers projects well. His willingness to tackle is the only flaw in his game, but that shouldn't deter any team from drafting him in the top seven.
Mac Jones, Alabama
Comparison: Nick Foles
Jones made the jump to the NFL after a hot run with insane efficiency numbers and overall production. It's debatable whether he should've, given that he had just over a year of starting experience. Evaluators will be concerned about his overall impact on the offense in comparison to the talent around him.
Jones' physical characteristics are adequate for an NFL starter but far from exceptional. He throws too often short of or behind his receivers to be a consistent good starter who maximizes his playmakers. The dominant supporting cast he benefited from may not have been as beneficial as Alabama's.
He's good at executing what's there, though, and he plays with assurance. His arm is strong enough, and his placement is brilliant at times. He'll need to improve his ability to throw his receivers open and where they'll be rather than where they are at his release point if he wants to be a reliable starter.
Jones will be drafted, most likely in the second round, and he could be worth that price with the right mechanical tweaks and if he's a high-level processor. However, he is the most scheme-dependent and risky of the top five quarterbacks.
We've rarely seen a receiver with Smith's body type excel in the NFL. The Heisman Trophy winner's biggest supporters will be Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Isaac Bruce. Because of their exceptional acceleration and balance, both were excellent route runners and creators after the catch.
Smith is the modern-day equivalent of those players, but that is a lofty comparison. He plays fast and can win over-the-top, but his 4.5 speed won't get the job done as consistently in the NFL as it did in college. His output will be determined by whether offenses feed him in novel ways, as Alabama did, and how much he can win on an island.
The most likely outcome is still a highly productive receiver who will not be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, and Tyler Lockett are still big-time playmakers, but they have some physical limitations that necessitate scheming. Smith can be a legitimate top-10 pick if he produces in that range.
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Comparison: Stefon Diggs
Waddle may be the most well-rounded Alabama receiver of all time. He has an incredible track record of making big plays and creating highlights at every level of the field, including as a return man. He possesses the athletic abilities to become a top NFL receiver one day.
Waddle moves at breakneck speed. Some scouts rank him as the top receiver in the class because he is faster than Smith and Chase and projects as more of a game-breaker. Everything about him, from his build to his playing style, is reminiscent of Diggs, the NFL's leading receiver this past season.
Waddle's impact will be amplified if he is placed in a less-stacked offense. Trying to defend him with man coverage and one deep safety is a recipe for disaster, and if that translates to the NFL, he'll be a huge steal even as a top-12 pick. Taking him as the first receiver should be on every front office's mind, even if the other two top names produced more.
Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
Comparison: Antonio Brown
Chase, 19, was the most dominant playmaker in 2019. The 6'0", 200-pounder played much bigger and faster than he will be tested at, and his game-breaking ability makes him an extremely appealing option for offenses in need of an immediate contributor. Chase plays with a tenacity and sharpness that few people can match.
Chase's route-cutting and break-whipping style is nearly identical to Brown's. Because of his attention to detail, well-roundedness, and short-area explosiveness, AB overcame his average size to become a Hall of Fame producer. Chase has the same potential as an outside receiver and a slot receiver.
In terms of maximizing his catch radius and finishing the play through contact, his hands are the best in the class. Early in his career, he'll be a safety valve, but he can also threaten to go deep thanks to his ability to play physical and find space with solid, but unspectacular, long speed.
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